Transport stocks lose steam
After the tariff shock in early April 2025, transportation stocks led the recovery trend with expectations that the tax deferral period would boost transportation demand, especially for shipping businesses as importers tended to stockpile goods and raw materials due to the unpredictability of reciprocal tariffs on the global supply chain.
However, from the end of May 2025 until now, the transportation stock group has suddenly turned around, trading cautiously compared to the explosion of stock groups such as securities, banks, real estate, and small and medium-sized enterprises that have just undergone restructuring, also increased sharply and attracted cash flow.
Specifically, from May 27 to July 23, shares of Hai An Transport and Stevedoring Joint Stock Company (code HAH) decreased by 15%, to VND 71,700/share; shares of Vietnam Maritime Transport Joint Stock Company (Vosco, code VOS) increased slightly by 2%, to VND 15,600/share; shares of Vinaship Maritime Transport Joint Stock Company (code VNA) decreased by 1.6%, to VND 19,000/share; shares of PetroVietnam Transportation Joint Stock Corporation (PVTrans, code PVT) increased by 7.3%, to VND 18,250/share (at the same time, the VN-Index increased by 12.9%).
In fact, after the recovery of freight rates from late April and May due to increased demand during the tax deferral period, freight rates have started to decrease again since early June. In particular, from July 18, 2024 to July 17, 2025, the Drewry World Container Index (representing the 8 largest shipping lines in the world) has decreased by 56.2%, from 5,937 to 2,602 USD/40-ft container and continues to decrease.
Freight rates have fallen amid concerns that demand for shipping will decline in the second half of 2025 amid business uncertainty, and demand for stockpiling has been strong in the first half of 2025.
It is known that the first half of 2025 marked a prominent trend of early export (frontloading) in the context of uncertainty related to US tariff policy, with trade turnover increasing by 16.1% over the same period. Notably, exports in the second quarter of 2025 increased by 18% over the same period and 13.6% over the previous quarter, when the 90-day reciprocal tax suspension period for tax negotiations promoted a wave of boosting exports to avoid risks of international trade and tariff policies from the third quarter. The volume of goods passing through container ports in the first 5 months of the year increased by 11% over the same period (higher than the normal growth rate of 8-9%), also clearly reflecting the frontloading trend. Therefore, the peak export season took place earlier than usual (usually in the third quarter).
“We expect container volumes and freight rates to gradually return to normal in the second half of 2025, as the peak export season (usually in the third quarter) has been extended to the second quarter. Based on historical cargo growth of about 8% per year and an 11% year-on-year increase, we forecast container volumes to slow to 4-5% year-on-year in the second half of the year. Container freight rates are forecast to decline towards the end of the year, especially in the fourth quarter of 2025, which is traditionally the low season,” SSI Securities said in its second-half 2025 Strategy Report on the transportation industry.
It can be seen that the business prospects of the maritime transport group still face many challenges in the second half of 2025 when shipping rates show signs of reversing after a short-term recovery, causing investors to limit investment in transport stocks, even though the stock market is excited and many industry groups are continuously surpassing their peaks.
Transport companies continue to expand their fleets.
Despite difficulties and challenges in the second half of the year when trade flows showed signs of disruption and transportation demand declined as goods and raw materials were mainly stockpiled in the second quarter, the group of transport businesses still showed ambition due to the characteristics of the industry and fleet structure.
In 2024 alone, Hai An successfully received and put into operation 4 container ships, including 3 newly built ships of 1,800 TEU (HA Beta, AB Sky, HA Opus) and 1 second-hand ship of 3,500 TEU (HA Gama), helping to increase the transport capacity of Hai An's fleet to 26,500 TEU (16 ships), becoming a large-scale private transport unit, operating on many domestic and international routes; and in early February 2025, Hai An successfully invested in the Haian Zeta container ship with a capacity of 1,702 TEU, increasing the fleet to 17 ships.
Not stopping at domestic and intra-Asia routes, Hai An is expecting to expand its services to the Mediterranean - Europe (MED - EU) and/or the US West Coast in the next few years, providing direct container transportation services to Vietnamese exporters/importers.
To realize the ambition of operating longer routes, especially towards markets/regions with large trade with Vietnam, Hai An is also building a roadmap to develop a larger fleet, meeting the increasing requirements of international maritime standards in the coming time.
In 2025, Hai An plans to build 4 new container ships of 3,000 TEU to 4,500 TEU; continue to seek to purchase 2 to 3 suitable used ships when there is an opportunity to promptly meet usage needs as well as meet the fleet development plan; and organize research and develop projects to build ships of 7,000 to 9,000 TEU.
Similarly, after more than 11 years of no investment, Vinaship suddenly invested in the Vinaship Unity ship at the end of 2024 with a capacity of 28,189 DWT, bringing the total fleet to 5 ships, with a capacity of 100,111 DWT, and an average age of 21.5 years.
In particular, Vinaship said that in 2025, the Company plans to add 2 more used dry cargo ships, with a capacity of 30,000 - 35,000 DWT, one ship is expected to be invested in the second half of the second quarter of 2025 and the other ship is expected to be invested in late December 2025, early January 2026 if conditions are favorable (temporarily not recording the operating targets of this ship in 2025). On the contrary, the Company will liquidate the Vinaship Pearl ship before December 31, 2025 (capacity of 24,241 DWT).
In addition, by the end of 2024, Vosco has approved a plan to invest in 10 ships, with a maximum value of 414 million USD, including purchasing 2 Supramax-sized bulk carriers, with a capacity of 56,000 - 58,000 DWT, used under 15 years old; building 4 new Ultramax-sized ships, with a capacity of 62,000 - 66,000 DWT and building 4 new MR-sized product oil tankers, with a capacity of about 50,000 DWT.
In 2025, Vosco will continue to seek to invest or charter more ships in various suitable forms, focusing on Supramax and Ultramax bulk carriers, MR product tankers, chemical ships and container ships. Vosco said that the Company has received interest from many domestic and foreign credit institutions to finance investment projects, including banks in the Top 4 of Vietnam such as BIDV, some large foreign banks such as HSBC, Fubon Bank... It is expected that the Company will borrow about 60% of the value for each project with appropriate interest rates and according to the Company's calculations, the projects are effective.
It can be seen that, for various reasons such as wanting to participate in longer-haul shipping routes, as well as rejuvenating the fleet, Vietnamese shipping enterprises are still implementing investment plans, although the industry may face short-term difficulties when freight rates are falling again and transportation demand is at risk of declining in the second half of 2025.