The global maritime transport market is entering a slowdown after a period of strong growth.
Q3 Profit Forecasts Show Divergence
As businesses prepare to release their Q3/2025 financial statements, early estimates from securities firms reveal a less optimistic picture for the maritime transport sector.
According to MB Securities, in Q3, PetroVietnam Transportation Corporation (PVTrans, ticker: PVT) is expected to record post-tax profits of VND 308 billion, down 16% year-on-year. Typically, the third quarter marks a recovery or stable demand season for oil and chemical shipping due to industrial and domestic consumption needs. Additionally, operations at the Dung Quat Refinery also support PVTrans’s domestic revenue. However, cooling freight rates have limited the company’s profit growth this quarter.
Meanwhile, SSI Securities estimates that Hai An Transport & Stevedoring JSC (ticker: HAH) will achieve post-tax profits of VND 340 billion, up 23% YoY, thanks to high charter rates and full fleet utilization through either leasing or self-operation. Profit margins were also improved by lower fuel costs compared to last year.
However, compared to the strong results of the previous quarter, Hai An’s Q3 profit is expected to fall by 18%, due to post-“frontloading” effects (the strategy of accelerating imports ahead of adverse changes such as tariff increases or strikes) and slightly higher fuel expenses.
Gemadept Corporation (ticker: GMD), primarily operating in port and logistics services and less directly affected by freight rate volatility, still faces spillover effects from the shipping market slowdown. As import–export activity weakens, cargo volume passing through ports has declined. SSI forecasts GMD’s Q3 post-tax profit will slightly decrease compared to Q2, reaching about VND 580 billion.
These preliminary estimates, though incomplete, reflect the maritime sector’s entry into a cooling phase after a period of strong growth — in sync with global trade activity. Following a period of accelerated imports to avoid U.S. tariff pressures, order volumes from major markets have slowed, weakening shipping demand.
In fact, this year’s peak season arrived earlier than usual — in June–July instead of August–September — as businesses rushed to import goods before temporary tariff suspensions expired. Consequently, port throughput in Q2 remained positive, but rising inventories in the U.S. have since led to subdued trade activity — a trend likely to persist until year-end.
In Vietnam, the latest Customs data show that total import–export turnover in the first half of September reached USD 39.05 billion, down 3.25% (or USD 1.31 billion) from the first half of August. Exports alone reached USD 19.2 billion, down 4.3% (USD 863.18 million). The decline was concentrated in key sectors: textiles fell by USD 335 million (–18.2%), footwear by USD 253.1 million (–25.61%), phones and components by USD 116.82 million (–4.7%), and wood products by USD 112.98 million (–15.7%). These figures highlight slowing demand from major markets like the U.S. and Europe, especially in labor-intensive industries.
Q4 Outlook: Three Ship Segments Under Pressure
Falling freight rates, weakening demand, and increasing vessel supply are squeezing profits across all three shipping segments — container, tanker, and bulk carriers.
Vietnamese shipping companies mainly operate within these three categories. As the year-end approaches, each faces growing challenges.
For container ships, the Drewry World Container Index shows global freight rates have fallen to their lowest since October 2023 — when Yemen’s Houthi forces began attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea — due to weak demand and excess capacity.
By the last week of September 2025, spot rates for a 40-foot container had declined for 15 consecutive weeks to USD 1,761 — nearly 56% lower than the same period last year and 74% below the July 2024 peak. Major trade routes across the Pacific and Asia–Europe also recorded declines.
Drewry forecasts that freight rates will continue to drop in the near term, as new U.S. tariffs and port fees exert downward pressure on demand.
Starting in October 2025, the U.S. will impose additional fees on vessels built in China that call at American ports. This policy affects about one-third of the global fleet, including ships built in China but owned by foreign companies. If alliances such as the Ocean Alliance adjust their routes, Vietnam could be excluded from several major lines — reducing cargo volumes.
According to FPT Securities (FPTS), by late 2025, as the Red Sea situation stabilizes and freight rates normalize, high-priced time charter contracts will be difficult to renew. As a result, chartered fleets may return to the domestic market, increasing local capacity pressure — especially as many shipping companies have recently expanded fleets in Hai Phong. This could directly impact container operators such as Hai An and Viconship (ticker: VSC).
In the tanker segment, BIMCO forecasts that the oil shipping supply–demand balance will weaken throughout 2025 as fleet supply grows faster than demand, while ongoing geopolitical instability keeps freight rates subdued. The global tanker fleet supply in 2025 is expected to surge — with vessel deliveries up 256% compared to 2024, the highest since 2009 — dragging oil freight rates lower.
Companies such as PV Trans (PVT), PVT Logistics (PDV), and PVTrans Pacific (PVP) — all primarily operating in the oil tanker segment — are likely to face shrinking profit margins.
For bulk carriers, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) — a benchmark for global dry bulk freight rates — has fallen 38% from its November 2023 peak, reaching 1,980 points (as of October 1, 2025), as demand for dry bulk shipping weakens.
FPTS forecasts that in the final months of 2025, demand for bulk shipping will decline due to global economic headwinds, particularly from China. Earlier this year, accelerated exports to avoid potential U.S. tariff hikes provided a temporary boost to freight rates, but that momentum has faded as industrial activity cools.
Additionally, the shift toward alternative fuels and domestic resource exploitation in major markets like India and China has reduced import demand, further weakening bulk shipping. FPTS estimates that Asian bulk shipping demand in 2025 will contract by 4%. Consequently, companies such as Vosco (VOS) and Global Pacific Shipping (PCT) may face twin challenges: rising operational costs and deepening demand weakness.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) noted that global maritime transport is entering a fragile growth phase, with escalating costs and heightened uncertainty. After rising 2.2% in 2024, global seaborne trade is projected to grow by just 0.5% in 2025.
Furthermore, political tensions, shifting trade patterns, and restructured shipping routes are reshaping the global maritime map. New policies from the U.S. and other partners — such as tariffs and port fees targeting foreign-built or foreign-operated vessels — are increasing costs across the industry.