Cargo ship moves on the Red Sea. Illustration photo: IRNA/VNA
The US and the Houthi group reaching a ceasefire agreement is an important development that could have a profound impact on the war situation and security in the Middle East. Accordingly, the US military agreed to stop airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. In return, the pro-Iranian armed group pledged to stop attacking ships in the Red Sea and the Bab Al-Mandad Strait. This is to ensure freedom of navigation and the smooth flow of international trade. Countries such as Qatar, Kuwait... have welcomed the agreement, expecting it to contribute to ensuring freedom of navigation in this complex and sensitive region.
The ceasefire is seen as a strategic move by the US, setting the stage for Washington’s next diplomatic moves in the region, including strengthening its alliance with Gulf states and weakening Iran’s influence. Both the US and the Houthis see strategic benefits in ending the fighting. Both sides also want to avoid escalating the conflict for fear of drawing in third parties, such as Iran or Israel, which could cause the war to spiral out of control.
Bruce Riedel, a scholar at the Brookings Institution, said the ceasefire agreement reflects a shift in US strategy. Rather than trying to completely destroy the Houthis’ capabilities, the US appears to be focusing on reducing the threat to international shipping. He also said Oman ’s role as a mediator was important and showed that diplomatic channels could still be effective.
Sanam Vakil, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, said the agreement could be a sign that both the US and the Houthis recognise that further escalation would have serious consequences. However, she also noted that trust between the two sides is low, and whether the ceasefire holds will depend on developments in Gaza and other regional factors.
From another perspective, Andreas Krieg, a lecturer at King's College London (UK), analyzed that this ceasefire agreement could be an effort by the US to avoid getting bogged down in a protracted conflict in Yemen . He said that the Houthis have demonstrated their resilience and ability to inflict significant losses, making a US military victory difficult.
Last March, US President Donald Trump ordered large-scale airstrikes against the Houthis to prevent them from attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea and to reduce their military capabilities . This is considered the largest US military campaign in the Middle East since Trump took office in January. However, the military capabilities of the Houthis have really surprised. The US side announced that it had airstrikes on more than 1,000 Houthi targets, destroying many command and control facilities, air defense systems, modern weapons production facilities, and weapons storage locations, killing hundreds of Houthi fighters and many of their leaders, but attacks in the Red Sea, including attacks on US aircraft carriers, continued.
Middle East analysts say the ceasefire will have a direct impact on Yemen, where a war has been raging between the Saudi -backed Yemeni government and the Houthis since 2015. If the ceasefire holds, it is hoped it could create a more conducive environment for dialogue and a lasting solution to the war in Yemen. It would make it easier for humanitarian organizations and the international community to provide humanitarian aid and reconstruction support to Yemen, a country devastated by years of war. This would help alleviate human suffering and create conditions for Yemen to recover economically and socially.
A ceasefire could lead to a reconfiguration of military and political forces in the region. The Houthis may seek to consolidate their influence in Yemen, while countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will seek other options to protect their interests. Moreover, the immediate reduction of conflict in the region will have a positive impact on neighboring countries such as Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, and even Iran.
The development comes ahead of US President Donald Trump’s visit to three Middle Eastern countries, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, from May 13 to May 16. The leader has said he will announce shocking information in the coming days that is not related to trade. The Trump administration is also said to be planning a $100 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia.
While the US-Houthi agreement may ease tensions in the Red Sea, it does not address the fighting between the Houthis and Israel. In an interview with Yemeni media, Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdul Salam said the agreement was not related to the Houthis’ stance in support of Palestinians in Gaza, implying that attacks on Israel, such as the rocket attack on an Israeli airport on May 4, would continue.
Israeli political analysts say that the US agreement with the Houthis will certainly affect Israel's strategy in dealing with armed groups in the region. In recent times, Israel has had to deal with a series of armed groups such as the Hamas movement in Gaza, the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon and the Houthi forces in Yemen. The situation became even more "like pouring oil on fire" when the Houthis on May 4 fired a ballistic missile at Ben Gurion International Airport on the outskirts of Tel Aviv, injuring eight people and disrupting air traffic in Israel, leading to fierce retaliatory airstrikes by the Israeli army in recent days. With the US and the Houthis' ceasefire, Israel may have to adjust its military and defense strategies.
In this regard, Peter Salisbury, senior analyst at Crisis Group, warned that the US-Houthi ceasefire agreement is fragile and does not address the root causes of the conflict. He said that as long as the fighting in Gaza continues, the Houthis will feel motivated to carry out attacks. He stressed the need for a more comprehensive political solution for Yemen and the region.
The fact that the agreement focuses primarily on protecting shipping lanes in the Red Sea and does not fully address concerns about Houthi attacks on Israel raises questions about the long-term sustainability of the agreement, as history shows that the region is complex and full of unexpected factors. The Houthis’ announcement of continued attacks on Israel could drag the US back into the conflict at any time. Therefore, many are concerned that the ceasefire agreement may just be a “calm” in the eye of the storm.
Thanh Binh (Vietnam News Agency correspondent in the Middle East)